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ON Monday, February 16th, Pakistan and India met in Islamabad after a hiatus of five years. The last foreign secretary level talks between India and Pakistan took place in Islamabad, but were not followed up.

The talks mark the latest step in a recent thaw in relations which had nose-dived with an attack on the Indian parliament by suspected militants in December 2001. However, it has been seen that India comes to the talking table, only, when it has some vested interests or it is under pressure for some upcoming strategic move. And most of the times, the talks have followed by deteriorations in relationship and also in war.

The history of talks dates back to the Indian occupation of Kashmir in 1947, when the talks for liberation of Kashmir, was followed by war in 1948. At this juncture, United Nations played its key role and adopted the resolution for plebiscite in Kashmir. Then in 1962-1963 talks again started as India was under threat from China, and the Sino Indian war broke. This talk was also supported by United States and the United Nations. These talks were followed by war in 1965. The Tashkent agreement took place, talks were held. These were followed by a war in 1971, and Pakistan was castigated.

Talks were held again under international pressure. Simla accord was signed. Then there was a gap till the 90's. The Lahore Accord was signed in late '90, after India was under tremendous pressure after conducting the nuclear test. This was followed by Kargil war. On paper Pakistan won this round but it lost at the White House. Talks were held again in 2000 under international pressure, but they were sabotaged by a select Indian lobby.

Following these talks, the December 2001 attack on Indian parliament almost brought both countries at the brink of war. However, it was almost averted. There was a deadlock for almost three years when we saw Mr. Vajpayee announcing confidence building measures. By this time, world was changed. It had become uni-polar. India was being considered as a strong ally of Washington. Its hype of its slogan of cross-border terrorism was accepted by most of the world. Pakistan was on the back seat. Now the opportunity is ripe for India to bid for a permanent seat in United Nations. But before it could do so, it had to mend its relations with all of its neighbours. Time will tell, whether these talks are also followed by a deterioration of relations or this time it really brings prosperity to the two nations.

The confidence building measures were announced first by India, to be followed by Pakistan. And thanks to manouvering at the SAARC conference in Islamabad, and bold compromising approach taken by the leaders of both countries, that talks were agreed to be held. After the SAARC meeting last month, the first steps of the new dialogue were taken when moderate Kashmir separatists met the Indian leadership.

They agreed a joint statement calling for an end to Kashmir violence. However, several Islamic militant groups have pledged to continue their armed campaign until Indian troops leave Kashmir.

To begin the talks, an Indian delegation led by Arun Singh, joint secretary in the external affairs ministry, arrived on Sunday for talks with its Pakistani counterparts, led by Jalil Abbas Jilani, director of South Asia in the foreign ministry here.

Both counterparts have been archrival to each other. Jilani was expelled from India as the Pakistani deputy high commissioner over charges of giving money to an alleged representative of the All-Parties Hurriyat Conference and Arun Singh had served him the expulsion order.

Now, both of them will be facing each other in a two-day meeting at the foreign office in Islamabad. Both sides will prepare an agenda for discussion between their bosses - foreign secretaries Riaz Khokhar of Pakistan and Shashank of India- on Wednesday.

On the agenda would be the confidence building measures highlighted in the recent past. The various items include terrorism, peace and security in the region; and of course Jammu and Kashmir, that has been at the heart of five decades of tensions between India and Pakistan.

Both sides will be looking to advance their argument on Kashmir. India will want renewed commitment from Pakistan to crack down on militant infiltration of Indian Held-Kashmir. Pakistan will be looking for movement from India on human rights and policing in the region under Delhi's administration.

But the current dialogues are being held under skepticism, because of the impending general elections in India. After the dissolution of Parliament, Atal Bihari Vajpayee has become a caretaker Prime Minister and lost the mandate to take any critical decision vis-à-vis Pakistan. This will lead to a low profile of interactions.

But a foreign ministry official said the two sides would try to come up with some concrete recommendations on contentious issues to pave the way for higher-level talks likely after the formation of a new government in India. The elections would have no negative impact on the bilateral dialogue. Whatever assurance Indian counterparts want to give, it is highly unlikely that we will be able to see a road map developed for the dissolution of the outstanding issues, including that of Kashmir.

A caretaker government is unlikely to be interested in serious talks. Furthermore, at this crucial juncture, Pakistan sees the growing relations between India and Israel as a concern to its security. Even growing Israeli role in Afghanistan is of worry to Pakistan. The recent fiasco of Dr AQ Khan has put Pakistan in an awkward position. So, the talks are starting amid doubts and uncertainties. Both Pakistan and India are grappling with their own problems, therefore, the timing for current talks is not suitable.

So, these talks will just make headlines in the newspapers as usual, and will be lost amidst the Indian elections. India wants to buy time, to be able to dictate terms on its own terms. The real talks will be held when India is serious in the resolution of Kashmir crises, and accepts Pakistan not as a rival but as a sovereign nation.

Therefore, "these can be only talks for talks. Pakistan should wait and see the election outcome (in India) for the real composite dialogue."

The writer is an analyst on South Asian Affairs and is affiliated with The Independent Centre for Strategic Studies and Analysis (ICSSA).
© 2004 Dr Minhaj A Qidwai