Kashmir: Viable Options
By Aroosa Alam

ALTHOUGH the governments of India and Pakistan have not officially denounced their long held rigid positions on Kashmir, yet privately both Capitals have now accepted that “ division” of Kashmir is inevitable to achieve durable peace and mutually acceptable resolution of Kashmir dispute.

Several rounds of informal talks between the senior officials of India and Pakistan have sharply focused on “identification of a large area which can be demilitarized completely and given independence”. What that area can be, is being very deeply discussed between the two governments as part of exploring options. But indications are that sharing of religious and ethnic identity on both sides of LoC will work as the yardstick for the identification of such an area.

President General Pervez Musharraf recently identified seven regions, which can fall into the category of such an area. The welcome outcome of back-door diplomacy has apparently led to the realisation on both sides that division of Kashmir is the only viable option.

It does not really mean division of entire Kashmir. And its also does not mean that only India will forego some of its area, Pakistan may also have to give up some of its territory to create a state that enjoys complete religious and ethnic identity and freedom. Initial outcome of these interactions between the two sides is reported to be “ good “ and in the right direction.

Unlike public perceptions, Pakistani leadership is convinced that time is now ripe for the resolution of Kashmir dispute. Fast evolving geo-economic politics has compelled New Delhi to look into the Kashmir issue rather deeply with an objective to resolve it.

New Delhi and Islamabad also share a common view that solution to Kashmir will emerge from trilateral dialogue between India, Pakistan and Kashmiris. The daunting task for the two sides is first to determine the real Kashmiri leadership and second to help them unite.

They can sit together to discuss options , political differences apart. In fact Pakistan feels that final option may even emerge from these otherwise disjointed Kashmiri leadership.

Pakistan is also mindful of the fact that any solution san Kashmiris’ consent will be disastrous. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was told this by President Musharraf in New York meeting. The onus of integrating Kashmiris into the process of exploring options has been put largely on Pakistan by India. Well placed sources claim that President General Pervez Musharraf is personally working on the unification of Hurriyat Conference who has the capacity and competence to take the Kashmiri people along.

Musharraf has been talking to the divided Kashmiri leaders to bring them on a common platform where they can at least discuss various options for the resolution of Kashmir dispute. Reports suggest that Musharraf initiative has been welcomed by the Hurriyat leaders and they may be meeting soon to resolve the intra-party differences. Syed Ali Gillani has been identified as a stumbling bloc but it is also felt that he enjoys the support of two-thirds members of General Council of Hurriyat. In Pakistani leadership point of view time of militancy is over.

They acknowledge that military instruments now must be replaced by political instrument. What worries most Islamabad is the growing outside ingredients in the indigenous freedom struggle.

“Outside ingredients have overtaken the inside ingredients which must be shunned now “ remarked a senior Pakistani leader. These leaders are also mindful of the fact that “ unwinding “ process of the militancy factors of Kashmiri movement will be a lengthy, painstaking and tedious but it will be a challenge which Islamabad is now ready to face.

President General Pervez Musharraf has opened the debate on options so that public opinion on both sides be molded out of obsolete and rigid positions of the past. Pakistani heirarchy feels that there should be maximum and minimum positions so that two sides can settle for the mutually acceptable middle position.

For almost over a year military experts on Pakistani sides have been seriously examining various options on Kashmir. The brainstorming at various levels resulted into a most logical conclusion that both India and Pakistan will have to move from its stated position to give way to a new option.

Following last SAARC Summit both sides look optimistic for a final resolution of Kashmir dispute. Both sides have decided not to have a utopian approach towards the problem and earnestly look for a win solution. Now when the two sides have agreed that there cannot be a military solution to the dispute, political options have been categorized into, plebiscite, partition, independence, and territorial adjustments, mutually acceptable to all parties.

At least eighth options have been identified and discussed along with their pro and cons by experts which firstly include the traditional Pakistani position of Implementation of UN Resolutions. India would never agree to this solution, but due to psychological implications , this option remains the anchor of Pakistan’s state policy.

River Chenab Plan, over the years have emerged as most viable option for both India and Pakistan. The option of partitioning of Jammu and Kashmir on the basis of religious affinities along River Chenab, in fact, is carrying forward of the unfinished agenda of partition. IT implies that, India retains Hindu and Buddhist majority areas of Jammu and Laddakh, while the Northern Areas, the Valley, and districts of Muslim majority in Jammu and Kargil region join Pakistan. River Chenab is an appropriate boundary as it divides Muslim majority districts of Doda and Hindu majority district of Jammu.

The Chenab formula which is gaining currency in both capitals will however require some border adjustments and accommodation of refugees which can be resolved through negotiations. Kashmiris must be taken into confidence to avoid any future irritants . If handled boldly, this option has all the prospects of gaining acceptability both for India and Pakistan.

The option is in consonance with history and Pakistan will gain all areas of strategic importance and maintain its vital links with China. Under this option, the water flow of the three Western Rivers will also remain guaranteed.

Declaring Kashmir an independent state is the third option hotly discussed at various levels. Kashmir has been an independent State before 1947. This option envisages the independence of the whole state of Jammu and Kashmir including Indian held Kashmir, Azad Kashmir , Northern Areas and Aksai Chin plateau presently under Chinese control. Even an independent Kashmir suits Pakistan due to its territorial and religious affinity with Pakistan.

But Pakistan’s strategic vulnerabilities will grow even further both in economic and military terms as Pakistan will have to give up Azad Kashmir and Northern Areas. Pakistan would also loose a direct link with China and hydroelectric resources of Northern Areas.

Water sharing would also become a major problem for the reason that control over Rivers Jhelum, Nelam, Poonch and Chenab would lie exclusively with the independent Kashmir.●

The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist and analyst of national repute, working with elite English daily ‘Pakistan Observer’ as a senior staffer.

© 2004 Aroosa Alam