Kalabagh Dam essential for Prosperity
By Khalid Khokhar

KALABAGH Dam has been consistently haunting the national integration and cohesion during the last three decades. A multi-faceted programme, which Pakistan needs badly to fulfil the growing demands of agriculture sector coupled with the production of relatively cheaper hydel power, has been a source of simmering subject between the socalled nationalist politicians of NWFP/Sindh and the Federal Government. Essentially a technical issue falling in the purview of the professional engineers and technocrats, has been given parochial complexion by few narrow-minded politicians whose politics was becoming unpopular, are now playing tactics against the construction of dams. It is also noticed that these elements neither had done any thing for the betterment of the masses when they were in power nor they had any will to solve the problems confronted by the inhabitants of the provinces.

President Pervez Musharraf, once said “there comes a time when we have to sacrifice personal gains for the sake of the country, and we must always keep in mind that Pakistan comes first”. This he said in reference to the construction of two controversial dams, which Pakistan requires to be constructed on ‘priority basis’. Feasibility of two dams, including the Bhasha Dam and the Kalabagh Dam, is complete and now a decision has to be taken to build at least one of them. If appropriate decision, regarding the construction of dam is not taken expeditiously, then there would be approximately 25% shortfall in food grain requirements in coming years and Pakistan would be one of the major food deficit countries in the world. Sustainability of existing irrigated agriculture is in serious jeopardy due to gradual sediment in the existing resources at Tarbela and Mangla.

A parliamentary committee and a technical committee are working to prepare report on the issue, and it is hoped that the stakeholders would soon reach a conclusion in the light of recommendations of these committees. “One dam is necessary to meet the acute water shortage”, Musharraf said, adding, however, the country would also be in need of another dam, later. He stressed that all the decisions would be taken after evolving a consensus among the provinces. President Musharraf urged the people of the provinces to take decision while keeping in view the “Pakistan comes first” consideration. The President ensured that rights of all the provinces will be protected and they will be benefited through the dam projects. Pakistan’s potential of bringing several million acres of virgin land under irrigation is marred by insufficient control over floodwater of the rivers as floods are detrimental, not only in financial terms, but also in the form of severe undermining of productive system.

Decision as to whether or not to construct Kalabagh Dam, has been in national focus three decades or so. Experts are unanimous regarding the spread to boost the water and power resources of the country and in the their concerted assessment, there is no better site than Kalabagh. Kalabagh Dam Project, if built, with its 3600 MW of installed capacity would add a large share of cheap hydropower to the system and would reduce the severity as well as frequency of floods in Pakistan in a greater way. As part of controversy on Kalabagh Dam, a number of apprehensions/doubts have been expressed both by upper (NWFP) and lower (Sindh) riparian provinces. Most of these are based either on lack of information coupled with the manipulation of nationalist politicians to serve their personal ends.

The NWFP fears that devastating floods of 1929 of Peshawar Valley including Nowshera would be repeated and reservoir at Kalabagh would adversely affect the drainages of surrounding areas thus creating waterlogging and salinity, and consequently, fertile land would be submerged and large number of people would be displaced. But the feasibility study report of the experts by no means justifies these apprehensions.

The real cause of floods of 1929 at Nowshera and Peshawar Valley was upstream entrance of Kabul River at Nowshera into confined channel at the end of Peshawar Valley; and backing effect of Attack Gorge downstream through which Indus River had to pass after its congruence with Kabul River. Before the congruence, Indus River flowed through a wide valley of over 8,000 feet and was then forced to pass through 1000 feet wide gorge for 5 miles. This constriction forced the river water to back up thus raising flood levels in Kabul River up to Nowshera. At maximum conservation level of 915 feet, the backwater effect of Kalabagh Lake would end about 10 miles downstream of Nowshera. A state-of-the-art computer based study, backed by physical modelling in Pakistan has established that recurrence of record flood of 1929 would not affect the water level at Nowshera even after 100 years of sedimentation in the reservoir.

Lowest ground levels at Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi areas are 1000 feet above Mean Sea Level (MSL) respectively and the maximum conservation level of 915 for Kalabagh would be maintained only for 3 to 4 weeks during September and October after which it would deplete as water is released for Rabi crops and power generation. It would further go down to dead storage level of 825 feet by early June.

This operation pattern of reservoir, by no stretch of imagination, could block the drainage and thus cause waterlogging or salinity in these areas. Total cultivable land submerged under the reservoir elevation of 915 feet would be.27,500 acres (24,500 acres in Punjab and 3000 acres in NWFP). The submerged irrigated land would be only 3000 acres (2,900 acres in Punjab and 100 acres in NWFP). And the estimated population to be affected by the project would be 83,000 (48,500 in Punjab and 34,500 in NWFP). A liberal resettlement plan would provide alternate irrigated lands to the affected families with modern facilities of water supply, electricity, roads, dispensaries, schools and other civic amenities.

On the other hand, the anti-Kalabagh Darn nationalist politicians of Sindh, have painted a very bleak picture and are trying to propagate that the project would render Sindh into a desert. However, it is not the case as the Kalabagh Dam is meant to store water during flood season and then make it available for the remaining dry period of years. The fear that Kalabagh would further aggravate present extent of seawater intrusion in the Indus delta does not hold true and can be termed as propaganda tactics by the so-called hard-liners.

According to the Water Appointment Accord (WAA) of 1991, on the average, about 12 MAF additional supplies to the provinces have been allocated (almost all in Kharif season). It is estimated that to provide additional allocated water over the year, storage of about 3.6 MAF would be needed (out of this, 2.2 MAF would be in the early Kharif season of April to July).

The experts say, around 35 MAF water goes to waste in sea and this wastage can be reduced to only 5 to 10 MAF by establishing water reservoirs. A member of the constructional firm that has made the proposals of Kalabagh Dam says that according to the contract, no canal will be taken out from the dam and it will only be water reservoir and water will only flow to the low lying areas. In this respect, it will not be against the interests of Sindh. As all are aware, Sindh need water in the beginning of Kharif and in the end of Rabi seasons. If the water flow remains constant during these times the agriculture yield of Sindh will increase in both the seasons. However, Sindh is exhibiting its mistrust towards Punjab and NWFP regarding drawing of a canal from Kalabagh Dam. Any way, if Punjab and Frontier ink a guarantee for it, then Sindh nationalists can be pacified.

Now this requires a comprehensive lobbying by the pro-dam forces to create conducive atmosphere for launching of CBMs amongst all the provinces. All the provinces have great expectations from the President who has realized the grievances of the small provinces. It is also true that since last two years water crisis is prevailing in the country. If there had been any other President the problem might have multiplied. President Pervez Musharraf has played a vital role in resolving the long-standing issues. If the President wants to build the dam, he can just announce and it is not difficult for him but he has constituted the committee to develop the confidence among the people of Sindh before announcing the construction of the dam.

The Government is planning to include 5 to 8 new Ministers and State Ministers to achieve consensus on the Kalabagh Dam. It is needless to say that Pakistan is in dire need of efficient water resource development projects, therefore, it is our moral obligation to extend all-out support to 25-year (2000-2025) National Water Resources Development Programme (NWRDP) keeping in forefront our national interest and do not get flustered by hand-picked people having personal vendetta against the national integration forces. Hence, Pakistan first is the right approach and Kalabagh is the right alternative.●

© 2005 Khalid Khokar