Democracy in the Offing?
By Gen (R) Mirza Aslam Beg

THE American Congressional Research Service (CRS) has painted a bleak picture of democracy in Pakistan, law and order and the rising threat of Islamic extremism, which were echoed in the remarks of Condoleezza Rice’s reply to John Kerry: “We have a contingency plan in case, Pakistan’s nuclear assets fall into the hands of the Islamic extremists”. The CRS report makes more revelations about Pakistan:

“Pakistan is probably the most anti-American country in the world today”. “The concept of enlightened moderation, is a direct response to a growing world perception that Islam is linked to fundamentalism, and thus to extremism, and thus to terrorism.”

“Musharraf (in uniform) is the best hope for stability in Pakistan and Afghanistan.” If Gen Musharraf were removed through violent means: The political institutions built by him will not survive his sudden removal”. And it is quite possible that the Army would declare martial law and rule directly.

“United States will continue to press toward eventual election and a full democratic process in Pakistan.”

My purpose is not to discuss the first four comments of the CRS or the statement of Condoleezza Rice, but would examine the last statement: “United States will continue to press toward eventual elections and a full democratic process in Pakistan”, as it has a direct bearing on the ongoing political manipulations and manoeuvring and the expectations of general elections late this year.

What would be the out-come of “US continued pressure towards full democratic process” and the military government’s back door hobnobbing, with the mainstream political parties – PPP (Benazir) and PML (Nawaz) is not difficult to judge. There could be three possibilities:

One: The deal with PPP(B) and PML(N) could be brokered, and General Musharraf gets the guarantee for the new term of office. If PML(N) becomes part of this deal, it would loose face. PML(Q) and MMA would be marginalized.

Two: Government fails to strike the deal with PPP(B) and PML(Q) and decides to continue till year 2007, waiting for new opportunities to emerge. This appears to be the course of least resistance.

Three: General Musharraf takes a bold decision to hold fair and free elections between now and 2007 and hands over power to the elected Parliament. This is not likely to happen for reasons, also known to General Ziaul Haq, till Allah intervened.

Option two provides greater flexibility and satisfies American sensitivity to fair and free elections, which they fear, may throw-up the Islamic extremists to power; the Pakistan Armed Forces melt away and nuclear assets would fall into the hands of the Islamic extremists, forcing the Americans to implement the contingency plan. A horrible scenario indeed!

May we therefore appeal to the American sensitivity, that their fears are totally unfounded. Their analysis does not take into account, the political consciousness of the Pakistani nation, which does not believe in theocracy, neither approves the concept of Wilayat-e-Faqih of the Iranians, nor the secular concept of the Turks.

It believes, in moderation. It believes in a liberal democratic order, based on the Holy Qur’an and Sunnah as enshrined in the 1973 Constitution of Pakistan.
There is no ambiguity or doubt in the minds of the Pakistani nation, as time and again it has voted for moderate political parties, and has rejected the extremists and the fundamentalists. The elections of October 2002 were different altogether, because mainstream political parties were purposely decimated and marginalized, to create political space for the religious parties. This cannot happen again.

This cannot happen again because the civil society has started asserting itself, as in Balochistan, and the mainstream political parties know it well, that a compromise with the military government would mean, political hara-kiri.

The PML(Q) and the PPP Patriots, having smelled the change, are seeking reconciliation with their parent parties. MMA on their own, would drift towards PML (N) who had been their traditional ally but that does not mean PML (N) and MMA would pull them towards extremism or fundamentalism.In fact, this combination will have sobering effect on both as a whole.

I don’t have the crystal ball to tell the Americans not to shy-away from fair and free elections, but I can quote two examples. One: Under the elections of 1970 held under General Yahya Khan, the majority should have been allowed to form the government, but wrong priorities and perceptions led him to the use of military force, which proved catastrophic for Pakistan.

The other was the election of 1988, where the majority party was called to form the government and democracy prevailed. This is one example to follow. It is always good to follow the right path. Seek guidance from the inner conscience. Place all interests above self and respond to the call of destiny.

It is an occasion to have tryst with history. It is the courage, which is the imperative. Courage is always the surest wisdom. A liberal democratic order therefore is in the offing. The wind of change is blowing and, ”on a quiet day I can hear her breathing.”●

© 2005 Gen (R) Mirza Aslam Beg